NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbbe4427a1c88b3604cf3b738eb5d3e5a1740ee5c1800490f42a3b5ef37e983d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,137 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 3,833$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.04 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 55c | 2,731$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 2,347$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.38 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,494$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.81 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 1,277$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.81 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 489.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…04b7backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 352$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 310.48$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 236.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 45c | 219.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 54c | 216.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 41c | 181.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 151.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 137$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Under | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 53c | 106.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Under | 57c | 69.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 50c | 66.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 50.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 48.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 36.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 26.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Over | 41c | 24.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. FlamesFlames won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.