NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b75d7e1b5bf1473899cf3c5358c1e701ac4924241160cb6dfcc87e29204320b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf7…737ebacked Over | 80c | 1,008$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 20c | 649.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 36c | 451.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 55c | 343.97$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 4c | 307.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Under | 24c | 284$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 6c | 283.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 13c | 258$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 248.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 35c | 165.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 76c | 151.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 25c | 145$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 74c | 123.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…4badbacked Under | 26c | 123.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 115.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…e87cbacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 97.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 90.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 51c | 83.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 36c | 71.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 62c | 66.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…f83abacked Over | 53c | 64.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 44.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…7af7backed Over | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…18d6backed Over | 78c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 4.5this page
- Panthers vs. FlamesFlames won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.