NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G7: Will Both Teams Score in First Minute?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbea766c66c1a2d9ade832b16e3d275facc4a3dbfc2d57a1b6d8160bff1b5b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 77c | 1,918$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.38 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 65c | 1,510$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.95 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 35c | 1,135$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.74 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 37c | 512.08$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 76c | 368.36$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.26 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 38c | 359.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.18 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 62c | 330.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 40c | 185.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…68abbacked No | 65c | 154.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 74c | 138.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Yes | 62c | 135.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…b899backed Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 45c | 89.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 60c | 86.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…b468backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 37c | 40.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 60c | 31.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 59c | 29.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…9410backed Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…4919backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 65c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.