Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbef69510350b710a71c19dfc2c05a339eec504050ebafeb97754eec37537983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed No | 72c | 9,498$6,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 28c | 6,786$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.2 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 28c | 2,158$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.52 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…161cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,734$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 27c | 550$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 355$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 25c | 286.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62e…dd41backed No | 72c | 283.86$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…2c4bbacked Yes | 28c | 221.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 26c | 183.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…c128backed Yes | 28c | 178.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed No | 71c | 147.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…93f4backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…f87dbacked No | 74c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4af…6467backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd8…2dd9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…53c8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba40…b7b7backed No | 73c | 90.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9e0cbacked Yes | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…19a1backed No | 73c | 81.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…9901backed No | 73c | 70.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4897backed No | 74c | 64.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…e44fbacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2025-02-01?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.