Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2caca52f5978bd007fbeb7d97513f281832c850e812f86985ce9a38a496506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 48c | 1,234$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.31 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 48c | 638.71$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.9 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 537.49$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…f9d4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 243.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…2bc1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 49c | 99.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bdc6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 57.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 50c | 49.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…363abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…09a9backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 55c | 21.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…f489backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-0.5)this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.