Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65817cc251925040b8731db29ae878b0dc6a72bff05feec74c314fb4a660d5d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 5,377$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.21 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 57c | 4,377$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.36 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Over | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 58c | 997.99$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.09 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 41c | 799.86$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.92 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 718.71$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.41 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 42c | 551.9$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.1 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 58c | 516.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 41c | 469.7$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 43c | 384.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…bfcdbacked Over | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 43c | 100.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…d10cbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…beafbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…30d5backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d0…214cbacked Over | 51c | 28.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 40c | 27.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…c439backed Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…9364backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Under | 43c | 24.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-0.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.