WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4c5345ee3fe4ae7348c362e58082c5b1e6be947f1436ab443340cac3a98cf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 6,550$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,188.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,985$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.61 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,410$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.97 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,389$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.51 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,210$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…6586backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 980$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 840$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 816.46$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.94 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…d2f5backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 440$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 190.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 186.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phoenix Mercury | 18c | 124$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Indiana Fever | 57c | 66.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da2…9030backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 36.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 36.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 27.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…614abacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 19.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.