WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2638272fb301eab0e721b0af7c05c2678a3638856b1a619dc65fe31a63a58721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea48…c596backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.78 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,074$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.26 | 410 | 51.2%210 W · 200 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,788$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.12 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,194$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 903.64$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 768.88$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.47 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 550.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.47 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 500.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Phoenix Mercury | 28c | 469.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 385.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 289.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 220$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Indiana Fever | 68c | 214.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Indiana Fever | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 193.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 234 | 67.5%158 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 193$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Phoenix Mercury | 25c | 166.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…ff1dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 160.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Phoenix Mercury | 26c | 155.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 136.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phoenix Mercury | 26c | 134.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 351 | 18.5%65 W · 286 L | -49.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Indiana Fever | 41c | 118.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 612 | 42.3%259 W · 353 L | -31.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Indiana Fever | 72c | 78.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Indiana Fever | 61c | 78.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 352 | 54.3%191 W · 161 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Indiana Fever | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Indiana Fever | 75c | 71.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever | 62c | 44.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 414 | 46.6%193 W · 221 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 328 | 49.4%162 W · 166 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 61c | 37.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Indiana Fever | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana Fever | 70c | 28.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 28.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Indiana Fever | 68c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Indiana Fever | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.