South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4f98583202a3000e40b06b86fae2cd22a8c98741ebbc82c1b82c36b74cc905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 51c | 7,977$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,923.4 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 43c | 5,647$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.12 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 50c | 1,951$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.6 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 16c | 1,253$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 1,100$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 1,019$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.83 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 3c | 629$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 44c | 453.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.85 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed No | 39c | 252$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544f…3ca1backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed No | 41c | 95.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 35c | 92.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 42c | 84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 41c | 64.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 56.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 41c | 53.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…75bdbacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 65c | 46.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 52c | 42.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 53c | 40.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 64c | 40.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 55c | 33.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 54c | 32.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 31.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Yes | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 48c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…c338backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.