South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a53c2f7c39eafe3a8913c839b6c7f8524288a139cbbce3a41138f082929576a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 2,521$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 1,545$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.11 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 1,262$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 6c | 1,193$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 77c | 500$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked No | 75c | 479.57$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 475.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.84 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 4c | 419.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked No | 78c | 383.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…c7cfbacked No | 75c | 320.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 75cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 40c | 273.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed No | 75c | 268$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 13c | 215.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 77c | 176.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 26c | 163.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 22c | 139.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 75c | 130.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 27c | 120.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.01 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 33c | 109.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…81a9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed No | 75c | 97.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 52c | 85.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…6561backed Yes | 26c | 78.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 27c | 76.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 36c | 62.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed No | 23c | 60.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 74c | 46.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…5e9fbacked Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed No | 36c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 34c | 36.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 35.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1d97backed Yes | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…7665backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed No | 78c | 26.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 23.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 65c | 20.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…c338backed Yes | 76c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…189fbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.