Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc56cafe0da7a7fec5e36db2292fc8e1f1f33ca1e624962fff1ba04252f07462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 43c | 56,093$24,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,120.11 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 57c | 30,727$17,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,228.49 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 44c | 15,106$6,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,579.22 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 38c | 9,486$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,632.34 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 6,056$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 40c | 5,752$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.8 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 4,354$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.84 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 38c | 3,738$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.5 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 38c | 3,726$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.07 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 38c | 3,722$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.94 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 56c | 1,653$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.23 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 44c | 1,222$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 38c | 1,057$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.66 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 39c | 796.1$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.89 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 42c | 626.41$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 24c | 489.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.23 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked No | 38c | 377.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 44c | 329.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 58c | 318.65$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 280.68$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 44c | 268.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 59c | 240.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…1dcfbacked Yes | 23c | 237.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 57c | 216.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 202.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked No | 37c | 173.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 42c | 164.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 43c | 155.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 43c | 155.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 40c | 129.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked No | 42c | 118.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 67c | 87.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 39c | 84.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 21c | 74.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked No | 53c | 74.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed No | 38c | 70.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 62.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 22c | 57.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…0e52backed No | 79c | 48.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 49c | 47.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 57c | 38.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked No | 37c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed No | 54c | 36.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 37c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 57c | 31.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 40c | 30.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 57c | 29.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Yes | 77c | 27.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Yes | 57c | 23.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 61c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.