Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6966f4fbd4e88a56a88e5c01ed51425bc7fff3ed828c8943f20df43e10c1b993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 30c | 3,963$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.67 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,985$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.58 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 1,911$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,803$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.77 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,456$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 74c | 1,059$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.66 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,009$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 24c | 381.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 24c | 224.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 205.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 77c | 134$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 20c | 98.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 75.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 29c | 74.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5f…e583backed Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 23c | 62.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 57.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 23c | 57.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 77c | 27.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 74c | 24.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed No | 71c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.