Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbefbdecbb1c2e4c8d944d228f5ec66a33ac371e77cbf4ef32d41efec9fc7ed9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 59c | 10,165$5,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,997.13 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 6,181$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 52c | 5,227$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.95 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 45c | 2,901$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.41 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 2,818$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.33 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 17c | 2,591$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.64 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked No | 45c | 1,998$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,619$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.03 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 68c | 1,304$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 56c | 1,190$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 45c | 1,073$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.45 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 53c | 964.42$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.89 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 53c | 941.57$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 53c | 925.19$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.5 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 48c | 920.36$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 41c | 816.88$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.96 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…23c7backed Yes | 13c | 713.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 45c | 632.93$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.1 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 63c | 620.07$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 55c | 553.66$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.46 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 44c | 531.87$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 57c | 496.13$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.79 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 56c | 471.43$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 41c | 397.62$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.59 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 56c | 391.19$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.33 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 43c | 325.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 46c | 318.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.18 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 45c | 297.8$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 46c | 282.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 55c | 250.32$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 55c | 219.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 60c | 211.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 53c | 192.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 59c | 182.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 17c | 164.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 41c | 152.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 45c | 132.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…36debacked Yes | 59c | 115.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked No | 56c | 114.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 111$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 57c | 99.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 18c | 74.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 55c | 70.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 45c | 69.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 41c | 69.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 55c | 61.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 55c | 60.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x311f…2aebbacked No | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 17c | 59.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 53c | 57.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 23c | 56.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 48.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5f…e583backed Yes | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 55c | 44.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…c121backed No | 45c | 39.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 33c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 55c | 35.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 44c | 35.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 55c | 32.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 41c | 31.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 55c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 51c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 45c | 22.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked Yes | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.