Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6e227be24c5758cdd88e101ce4ac27733d589fc7cd7465ea01562068cceb1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 0c | 16,259$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 5c | 5,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 5c | 5,292$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.59 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 5c | 4,505$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 1,419$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 13c | 799.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 15c | 798$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 9c | 666.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 23c | 455$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked No | 5c | 428.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked No | 8c | 371.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…75bebacked No | 4c | 305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed No | 51c | 295.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 58c | 282.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 10c | 245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 39c | 209.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 201.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 47c | 192.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…a113backed No | 14c | 142.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed No | 22c | 125.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…7794backed Yes | 38c | 105.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 41c | 45.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…f518backed No | 63c | 44.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 37.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…ff39backed No | 58c | 35.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 50c | 21.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397a…4d70backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.