MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8482e46237766d879415076f8469a79781b74661eecda831e750c62af593c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Athletics | 46c | 5,253$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.62 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 3,576$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.93 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 1,585$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Athletics | 77c | 566.66$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 526.54$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 400$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago White Sox | 42c | 240.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 228.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chicago White Sox | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 58c | 191.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 120.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Athletics | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Athletics | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 57c | 58.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Chicago White Sox | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Athletics | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Athletics | 43c | 46.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Athletics | 60c | 35.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Athletics | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 26.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.