UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb7659344c489dcfced18da6cb7b76a4a227565d029f4caa256a6076c94ac47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 8,234$4,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.94 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 50c | 7,736$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,867.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…0561backed Under | 50c | 7,724$3,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 47c | 4,238$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 49c | 1,650$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 55c | 995.39$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.29 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 783$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.65 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 53c | 452.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 377.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…2a84backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 47 | 78.7%37 W · 10 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)Vinicius Oliveira won
- Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.