College Football · resolved market
Spread: LSU (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcee7f2fb493e1fc4473cb8dd0ee83c00e7f7badc53c3ebb44c3afcb7fa408f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansasof LSU, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Arkansas | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,800 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed LSU | 46c | 19,917$9,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,161.86 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU | 46c | 5,594$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.9 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked LSU | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Arkansas | 55c | 529.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.09 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Arkansas | 54c | 439.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed LSU | 46c | 154$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed LSU | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed LSU | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked LSU | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Arkansas | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked LSU | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Arkansas | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LSU (-5.5)this page
- Arkansas vs. LSULSU won
- Arkansas vs. LSU: O/U 56.5Under won
- Arkansas vs. LSU: O/U 57.5Under won
- O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: LSU (-4.5)Arkansas won
- Spread: LSU (-6.5)Arkansas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.