Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf140b9a6d19ae61f0224eb779eec1fa001091ada24f48f78cbd5e8893e8475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 764.97$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.56 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 410.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 40c | 202.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 28c | 201.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 175.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 40c | 164.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 36c | 164.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 25c | 154.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 136.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 43c | 131.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 36c | 125.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 121$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 119.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 74c | 118.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 112.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 49c | 97.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 97.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 64c | 93.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 75c | 82.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 59c | 81.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 75c | 78.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 34c | 72.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 45c | 66.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 74c | 62.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 39c | 62.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 53.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 53.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 68c | 53.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 36c | 51.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…8b00backed Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 44.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 43c | 38.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 36.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 38c | 34.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 34.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 50c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 32.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 29.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…2dabbacked Yes | 35c | 29.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 70c | 27.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 26.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 25.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 45c | 24.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 56c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…8be1backed Yes | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 63c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.