TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes35c846.53$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1417643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes40c689.26$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.413042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes35c441.1$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.021,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes18c332$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.763821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c277.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.782,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes14c272.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No75c263.51$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes32c245.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.835233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes33c228.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6538547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c182.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No58c164.35$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0329748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb94a…d680backed No68c147.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8112348%59 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…4fd0backed No69c136$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.165050%25 W · 25 L-10.5wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes27c131.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4819648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes25c120.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2256118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes27c119.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3919022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes38c109.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2919427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c104.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.622,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c103.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No69c102.85$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8188628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2349646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2616135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes27c98.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1516626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes44c95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c88.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.717,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes20c81.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.481,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf052…0ce7backed Yes59c81.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.65875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes26c76.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.923154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes31c76.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8151537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes33c73.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2610728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No75c66.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes35c64.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4815152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c64.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes50c61.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5853258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x747a…f334backed Yes37c60.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.523661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1cb…af17backed Yes43c56.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.38442.9%36 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes31c56.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5964460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe019…f862backed Yes44c55.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5528021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c54.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c54.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No75c52.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.045961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c50.38$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.510577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes27c49.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.495633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes26c49.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.997425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked Yes27c47.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7912538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c46.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.411,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes25c46.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes32c44.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.162065%13 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c43.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes46c41.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9242849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c38.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked No70c38.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.672860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No73c37.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.137777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No73c36.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes33c36.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.953,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c35.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.032,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No74c32.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c08…724fbacked No74c30.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.996073.3%44 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No74c30.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No64c29.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.76845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c29.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.661,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked No66c28.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.856946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed No56c28.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6211140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No38c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.232,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No75c27.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9612564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c26.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No73c26.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.219772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed No76c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No58c22.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6614158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No75c22.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No75c21.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4418272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No77c20.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.677173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked No73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.46481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c16.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.051,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0d…37a2backed No75c15.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.831485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick75cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No65c15.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.452155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No72c14.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.981,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.