Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac4e0834aa2beaf2bff3f92ae47adb6674859615fa4e6781e2242a20829e95c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 35c | 846.53$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.14 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 40c | 689.26$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 441.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 18c | 332$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 272.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 263.51$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 32c | 245.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 33c | 228.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 182.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 164.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 68c | 147.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 69c | 136$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 27c | 131.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 120.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 27c | 119.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 38c | 109.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 104.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 103.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 102.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 27c | 98.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 88.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 81.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…0ce7backed Yes | 59c | 81.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 31c | 76.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 33c | 73.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 66.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 35c | 64.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 64.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 50c | 61.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 37c | 60.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 43c | 56.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 56.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 44c | 55.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 54.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 54.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 52.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 50.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 26c | 49.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 27c | 47.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 46.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 46.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes | 32c | 44.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 46c | 41.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 38.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 70c | 38.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 73c | 37.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 36.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 74c | 30.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 30.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 64c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 56c | 28.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 27.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 22.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 77c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 75c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.