Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd0031ac01924f93db417f5f4ef128457b62226cbc2f1733aa32df1e9d95c8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 337.25$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 76c | 334.02$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 257.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 215.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 198.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 188.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 183.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 180$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 174.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 10c | 142.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 129.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 118.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 111.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 108.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 30c | 99.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 94.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…6fe6backed Yes | 21c | 89.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 88.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 78.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 80c | 76.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 18c | 74.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed Yes | 36c | 68.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 19c | 60.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 60.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 49.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 47.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 24c | 47.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…de22backed No | 74c | 43.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 26c | 42.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 29c | 41.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 39.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 28.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…60f4backed No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 80c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.