Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ee42460a73d55f6510f5e843ae2ce37c920c405249a4dfa26e6480cf0908ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 495.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 241.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 27c | 223.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 76c | 211.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 203$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 28c | 164.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 74c | 87.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 27c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 71.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 75c | 66.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 22c | 66.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 64.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 64.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 60.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 55.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 29c | 54.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 50.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed No | 77c | 45.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 41.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…3d3bbacked No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 67c | 25.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 70c | 20.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…cc87backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 72c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed No | 71c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 76c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 71c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.