Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd0c227eecd9eacaab98d18eaf6d96e491c66bb7db85d009aea71ff93436336c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 322.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 247.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 246.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 65c | 221.62$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 61c | 162.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 126.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 65c | 106.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 80c | 104.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 55c | 100.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…840ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 65c | 77.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked No | 65c | 77.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 70.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 61.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 65c | 45.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 48c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 34.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 29.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 70c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 18.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed No | 71c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.