Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e97f3e578297134f9459a321c53fa810af9cbfb95d0bd2c8a7bc4cb91f912d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 755$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 26c | 599.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 340.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 298.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 245.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 80c | 240.05$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 30c | 125.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 103.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 98.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 97.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 77.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 70.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 29c | 57.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 36.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 30.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 75c | 28.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 68c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.