Tennis · resolved market
ITF Porto: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Daniil Ostapenkov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2d60e7d300849e72230f43d1bd9864f8ecf2460651ff7de590a57445ff455b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carl Emil Overbeckof Carl Emil Overbeck, Daniil Ostapenkov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 63c | 636.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.06 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 54c | 399.35$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 21c | 238.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 22c | 138.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 38c | 134.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 57c | 133.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 71c | 94.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 38c | 73.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Daniil Ostapenkov | 46c | 71.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Daniil Ostapenkov | 54c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 70c | 60.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 17c | 59.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Daniil Ostapenkov | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 69c | 38.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 74c | 36.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Daniil Ostapenkov | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Daniil Ostapenkov | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27e…d4fbbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Daniil Ostapenkov | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 63c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.