Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3e496a1aec4cd0afb275230eda630562f6e54c859262f1e387a4ab0842a7d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 73c | 554.55$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 283.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 279.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 16c | 267.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 200.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 187.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 156.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 149.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 146.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 126.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 119.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 68c | 117.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 22c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 107.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 18c | 85.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 85.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 19c | 72.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 56.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 32c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 30c | 44.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 37.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 31.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 30.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 76c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.