Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8a383e7184c172b986449dd87890e8b5e7e7bb781b4ff6c5d6d2f6dd39df4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 79c | 408.57$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 60c | 263.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 66c | 237.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 58c | 213.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 211.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 63c | 177.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 61c | 163.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 161.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 24c | 161.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 153.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 75c | 134.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 123.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 58c | 120.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed No | 22c | 115.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 110.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 107.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 88.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 24c | 84.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 41c | 83.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 17c | 83.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 82.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 81.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 19c | 79.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 75.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 64c | 74.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 20c | 74.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 71.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 67.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed Yes | 78c | 64.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 34c | 63.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 22c | 57.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 36c | 52.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 21c | 50.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 47.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 29c | 46.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 28c | 45.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 53c | 45.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 45c | 44.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 27c | 39.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 62c | 37.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 38c | 32.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 48c | 31.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 58c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 25.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 63c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 64c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a6…cfc0backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 19.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…5b49backed Yes | 73c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…6262backed Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked Yes | 63c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…5b8dbacked Yes | 62c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 76c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 78c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.