Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iceland vs. France end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd644a40ee39c0dbb43c0d42bff14974b2236c02851d46accb216304917b6f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 33c | 4,376$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.95 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 31c | 3,046$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.19 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 2,916$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.77 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 42c | 1,806$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.87 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…bedfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,669$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…202bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,602$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +354.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…422ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,588$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +276.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 47c | 1,412$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.11 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 1,272$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.1 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,022$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.02 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 17c | 928.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.87 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 15c | 598.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.7 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 574$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.92 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes | 52c | 384.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 336.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 34c | 294.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 265.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…7bc9backed Yes | 41c | 242.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 69c | 225$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…d82fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 48c | 115.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 17c | 94.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed Yes | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 67.7%65 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34c…93cebacked Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…c4bebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb440…d279backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…b205backed Yes | 69c | 36.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iceland vs. France end in a draw?this page
- Will France win on 2025-10-13?No won
- Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.