Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0307106f98a2c6fe792df476d4c3be85779ec52c8e4ed21d68677c44448228ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 9,830$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.81 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 22c | 5,296$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 74c | 5,181$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 5,049$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.11 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 8c | 3,132$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…f478backed Yes | 33c | 2,712$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,476$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…ed09backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7127backed Yes | 9c | 1,683$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…f489backed Yes | 9c | 1,670$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,554$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…827dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…6f1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…c672backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 9c | 847.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed No | 74c | 766.62$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 7c | 690.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…e897backed Yes | 8c | 611.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…66a3backed Yes | 8c | 584.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 7c | 564$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 548.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 13c | 503.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 4c | 458.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…7f52backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 8c | 398.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 26c | 373.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb440…d279backed Yes | 7c | 292.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 6c | 281.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 38c | 251$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 66c | 225$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 223$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Yes | 9c | 192.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 154.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 7c | 149.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 78c | 139.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…4fe5backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 38.2%112 W · 181 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 124 | 17.7%22 W · 102 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 107.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 69c | 104.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 60.3%70 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…9995backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 70c | 49.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…6a27backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…0f9bbacked No | 73c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?this page
- Will France win on 2025-10-13?No won
- Will Iceland vs. France end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.