TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa206…0f9b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Aliaksandra Sasnovichbacked Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+42.9%+$85.71
Rotterdam Open: Ugo Humbert vs Christopher O'Connellbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+25%+$88.4
Dallas Open: Tommy Paul vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$217.24
Dallas Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+25%+$37.5
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jongbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+37.9%+$110
Qatar Total Open: Alycia Parks vs Qinwen Zhengbacked Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+38.9%+$86.8
Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elena Rybakinabacked Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28.12
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Janice Tjenbacked Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$47.25
Rotterdam Open: Hugo Grenier vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Grenier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$101.21
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hamad Medjedovic vs Luka Pavlovicbacked Pavlovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+640.7%+$259.49
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$28.21
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.99
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovicbacked Munar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.37
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Rangersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$62.82
Lightning vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$70.5
Blue Jackets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30.24
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Francisco Donsbacked San Francisco Dons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Oregon State Beavers vs. Seattle Redhawksbacked Seattle Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+29.4%+$140.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$75.94
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+40.8%+$72.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+25%+$9.86
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Virna Jandiroba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$5.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+37%+$6.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+31.6%+$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+28.3%+$13.87
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.