South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4676132d80dd168b2042a93313c96aa9bb8593f70a58cd1d8468a5303d20faa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 4,572$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.33 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.99 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Yes | 39c | 3,846$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 40c | 3,202$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.36 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 60c | 2,677$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.07 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 71c | 2,510$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 41c | 2,185$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.16 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes | 40c | 1,960$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.04 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 60c | 1,786$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 1,258$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.07 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 951.16$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…e0c2backed Yes | 41c | 772.79$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 41c | 754.69$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.73 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Yes | 40c | 747.07$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 58c | 723.69$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.85 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb0…4cd4backed No | 29c | 600$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1df9backed Yes | 73c | 555$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 472.64$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.22 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 76c | 426.64$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 25c | 358.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 23c | 354.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 40c | 350$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 329.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Yes | 41c | 299.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed No | 60c | 248.33$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 31c | 245.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 59c | 190.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 39c | 153.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…0f9bbacked Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Yes | 40c | 139.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 41c | 116.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 43c | 115.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 44c | 110.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…de73backed No | 26c | 104.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 33c | 88.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…ebffbacked Yes | 50c | 70.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8905backed No | 22c | 67.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 44c | 63.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Yes | 42c | 62.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 42c | 58.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 43c | 57.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…e2d8backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 60c | 56.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed No | 30c | 53.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…be85backed No | 27c | 53.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Yes | 42c | 51.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…2570backed No | 24c | 46.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed No | 26c | 46.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked No | 26c | 42.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes | 42c | 37.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…6b26backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 43c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 41c | 24.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 459 | 46.8%215 W · 244 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?No won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.