South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816e3ee55bc6a992abfcc57541ee6fe1ed5c40743f1c81e20f9c5fc4d5c5dfeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 75c | 41,162$30,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,290.58 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 25c | 22,141$5,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,548.28 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 6,081$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 3,001$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.43 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…4b6abacked Yes | 9c | 2,598$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…a10bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 25c | 1,851$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked Yes | 25c | 984.36$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 73c | 859$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 7c | 786.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 74c | 528.35$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 4c | 511.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 24c | 505$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19e…c879backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…db20backed Yes | 27c | 424.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 25c | 414.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 25c | 365.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 329.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 302$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 76c | 294.13$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 13c | 222.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 72c | 172.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…7180backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 27c | 144.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 108.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…9242backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…6b26backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…2778backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc53…5ce3backed Yes | 32c | 63.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…15bbbacked Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 25c | 58.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Yes | 25c | 55.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…072dbacked Yes | 30c | 37.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 67c | 35.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174f…71d6backed Yes | 28c | 35.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed No | 75c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-12?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?No won
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.