South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29598aec5ab8bec11ccf3ce93b37fce98ef8564254425e18ae689d3c86a5292f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 33c | 1,168$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.44 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 898.53$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.54 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 67c | 844.27$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.46 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 672.08$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 623.72$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 467.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 33c | 329.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 67c | 124$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…292fbacked Yes | 33c | 117.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 33c | 89.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed No | 68c | 70.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 63.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 61.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 50.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 32c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…0116backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-12?Yes won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.