TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Bruins vs. Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rangersof Bruins, Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,016,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,050,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,016,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Bruins53c400,000$213,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,572.8319848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bruins49c326,235$159,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,297.681,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rangers47c285,135$133,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,127.5556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bruins49c238,407$117,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,216.8938748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Rangers47c100,000$47,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,999.8822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Rangers48c92,595$44,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,354.7248545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bruins52c66,050$34,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,603.621,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bruins53c61,385$32,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,806.921,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Rangers48c39,821$19,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,706.9415953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Bruins51c38,817$19,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,971.7926849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Rangers24c30,392$7,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,233.341850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Rangers63c30,250$19,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,192.454365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Rangers63c24,938$15,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,227.2411745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rangers46c23,569$10,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,693.151,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Rangers47c20,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,70032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Rangers48c19,584$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,184.148848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Rangers63c18,199$11,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,733.463764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Bruins53c17,000$9,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,010933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rangers47c16,887$7,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,940.6193953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afd…4d18backed Rangers51c16,308$8,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,990.71957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Rangers72c14,947$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,146.713360.6%20 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bruins54c12,000$6,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,439.9861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Rangers46c11,770$5,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,355.851452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Rangers63c11,550$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,273.44866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Rangers48c11,361$5,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,964.6433243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rangers48c11,003$5,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,742.6761953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Rangers63c11,000$6,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,070.447162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Rangers51c10,768$5,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280.31,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Bruins52c10,359$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,407.398450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bruins53c10,084$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,340.4561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Rangers46c9,208$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.311,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Rangers59c8,054$4,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers46c8,031$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.41,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Bruins6c7,856$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.5133154.1%179 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rangers47c7,667$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,063.5922747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rangers46c7,660$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,136.321,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bruins53c7,126$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.7886852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Rangers48c7,079$3,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,681.0914753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Rangers46c6,500$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5101,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Bruins50c6,076$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.554358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bruins53c5,637$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,977.560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Bruins49c5,595$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.6532744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Rangers63c5,500$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0356456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rangers46c5,167$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,765.291,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rangers58c5,167$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.5889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bruins53c5,023$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.1975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed Rangers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Rangers48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Rangers47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Rangers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70022150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Rangers47c4,800$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Bruins52c4,717$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.7519051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Rangers47c4,563$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.624349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cd…5f42backed Rangers34c4,555$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Rangers63c4,125$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.256100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Rangers47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1207347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Rangers62c3,944$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.834856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Rangers23c3,913$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,013.046946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Bruins52c3,858$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bruins55c3,699$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.0734538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Bruins57c3,671$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.296946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Rangers63c3,575$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.743154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Rangers46c3,478$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.1252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf858…dc3cbacked Bruins53c3,200$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.962152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rangers52c3,185$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.942,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Rangers47c3,150$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.526058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Rangers48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62531550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Rangers46c3,030$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.5462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…3bbdbacked Rangers47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Rangers48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5602524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bruins52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9933345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Bruins53c2,875$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.718547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c0…1885backed Bruins53c2,850$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bruins44c2,792$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.952,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Bruins54c2,731$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47529551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Bruins53c2,500$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.7915749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Rangers47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9727243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rangers33c2,472$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.711,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bruins66c2,287$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.1695049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rangers46c2,251$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.962,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rangers47c2,209$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bruins43c2,178$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.411,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Rangers48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.334240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Bruins53c2,040$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.22147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Bruins53c2,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bruins53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rangers48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Bruins53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9925447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c1…c5dbbacked Rangers46c1,995$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Bruins53c1,922$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.718258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x478b…982bbacked Rangers48c1,902$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe616…1fb0backed Bruins53c1,902$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Rangers47c1,899$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.652050%10 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc38e…b116backed Bruins54c1,862$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f2…8083backed Rangers47c1,862$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Rangers47c1,800$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95440049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5b…6392backed Bruins54c1,787$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe909…2bcabacked Rangers47c1,711$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Rangers47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90161959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Bruins48c1,700$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.6725555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.