NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b583ef84a5f08b023d7fd27df27ea69f79a8ab9e19b6fe591b6ccf4d7089db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 49c | 3,498$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 3,008$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.97 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 48c | 2,290$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.29 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 1,950$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 1,915$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…5a77backed Over | 46c | 1,833$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 1,085$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 919$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 51c | 441.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 382.59$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 37c | 320.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Under | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…8afbbacked Over | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 50c | 199.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 47c | 161.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 107.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 106.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…0f9bbacked Over | 40c | 78.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 40c | 71.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Over | 39c | 54.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…dcb5backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.