NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef25f07f1f132d450367bea72c84cb42eb314bbf0935262ecb9150f45936fdfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Heat, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 52c | 49,998$25,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,998.94 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Jazz | 48c | 49,872$23,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,933.49 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Jazz | 48c | 5,318$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.6 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 52c | 4,992$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 50c | 4,006$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.48 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 50c | 3,392$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.41 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 48c | 1,091$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.17 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Heat | 52c | 881.97$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.44 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 49c | 834.11$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 52c | 822.98$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 51c | 685.51$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.61 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Jazz | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 50c | 534.09$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Jazz | 49c | 410.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Jazz | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 54c | 406.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.46 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jazz | 55c | 220$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Heat | 52c | 196.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 52c | 195.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Heat | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Heat | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 47c | 137.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Heat | 36c | 129.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Jazz | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Heat | 40c | 99.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Jazz | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Heat | 53c | 92.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Heat | 51c | 90.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…70a9backed Heat | 56c | 87.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…57f0backed Jazz | 57c | 87.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 46c | 80.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 45c | 73.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Heat | 52c | 67.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Jazz | 79c | 52.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Heat | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Heat | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Jazz | 39c | 41.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…bfaebacked Heat | 34c | 39.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Heat | 39c | 38.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Heat | 48c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 48c | 31.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Heat | 53c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Jazz | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Jazz | 51c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Jazz | 48c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 54c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Heat | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Heat | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.