NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a85652300650ff27b1fb9a496f02aad545fc436cff15ee224103ef28add90ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 22,236$11,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,144 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…4535backed Over | 51c | 19,826$10,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,111.51 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Over | 46c | 5,994$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.24 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 49c | 5,189$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.89 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 2,728$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.4 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,420$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 36c | 563.92$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 46c | 560.26$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 468.75$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 441.29$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.06 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 64c | 284.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 64c | 279.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 57c | 222$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 214.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 44c | 188.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Under | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 127.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Under | 53c | 98.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Under | 56c | 87.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 40c | 84.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 77.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 60c | 75.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Under | 50c | 70.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 65c | 47.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 52c | 46.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…a6afbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Under | 53c | 40.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 36c | 30.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 56c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f42…249ebacked Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Under | 55c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.