NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f7cf0c6e84a2e504c57b6877f140cc3ded61c7f0383ab7acf512cc656ba30c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Heat, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Heat | 45c | 21,969$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,886.02 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 54c | 20,784$11,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,525.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Heat | 49c | 5,700$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.99 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Jazz | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 54c | 3,256$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 51c | 3,178$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.8 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Heat | 45c | 2,980$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Heat | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Heat | 54c | 1,623$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 46c | 1,577$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Jazz | 56c | 1,482$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.14 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz | 51c | 1,321$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.29 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 45c | 614.78$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.86 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Jazz | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 46c | 437.72$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.87 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 51c | 415.82$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Jazz | 54c | 255.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Heat | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Heat | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Jazz | 52c | 192.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 38c | 188.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Heat | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 58c | 162.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…981dbacked Heat | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 51c | 123.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Jazz | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…57f0backed Heat | 57c | 104.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Jazz | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Jazz | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Jazz | 54c | 95.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Jazz | 51c | 87.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Jazz | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Heat | 46c | 66.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Jazz | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Jazz | 52c | 48.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Heat | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Heat | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Jazz | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Heat | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 51c | 35.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Jazz | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Jazz | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Jazz | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…f500backed Heat | 47c | 27.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Heat | 51c | 27.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Heat | 50c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Jazz | 57c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Jazz | 53c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…44f6backed Heat | 53c | 18.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.