NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aae13986145916e53b2c591d688d54f2689a4f90bd40f61024831bf86ffc0e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Heat, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 38c | 2,038$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Jazz | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 28c | 1,110$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 45c | 1,070$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.6 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 60c | 1,029$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 56c | 551.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.67 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Jazz | 66c | 529.22$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.1 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 38c | 377.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Jazz | 55c | 320$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 43c | 246.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Heat | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Jazz | 58c | 152.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Jazz | 65c | 109.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Heat | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Jazz | 62c | 85.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 50c | 52.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Jazz | 60c | 51.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Jazz | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 51c | 46.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Jazz | 54c | 42.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…0da7backed Jazz | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…196ebacked Heat | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Jazz | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Heat | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Heat | 47c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Jazz | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cc8cbacked Jazz | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Heat | 39c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Heat | 56c | 22.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.