NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebce87e05ec99ea50b460adc2f372b211083dec65770655261dae6c2ff37b315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 5,846$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 47c | 1,973$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.26 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 1,392$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.14 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Over | 47c | 1,091$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 46c | 1,059$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 46c | 786.5$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.79 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 685.89$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 618.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 46c | 394$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.24 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 335.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 317$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 309.14$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 79c | 178.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…eb1abacked Under | 51c | 141.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 136.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 40c | 134.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 130.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 79c | 113.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b098backed Under | 54c | 93.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 64.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6e…5741backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 19c | 53.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 61c | 45.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 52c | 42.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 32c | 35.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 64c | 34.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 54c | 30.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…0a43backed Under | 72c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Under | 59c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 244.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. HeatJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.