TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jazzof Heat, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat47c8,788$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,133.272,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ec…8815backed Jazz54c4,630$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…3eefbacked Heat47c4,041$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz54c3,708$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.192,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Jazz51c3,605$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.7446145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd248…3b58backed Jazz53c2,152$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34d…120cbacked Heat46c2,100$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…a0c9backed Heat46c1,900$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730f…952cbacked Jazz53c1,889$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Heat46c1,372$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.191,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat48c1,330$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.143,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Jazz53c1,310$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.72,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz53c1,255$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.851,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Heat50c1,089$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.664553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat42c957$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.946,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Jazz53c811.53$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4289050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz50c725.58$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3613,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Jazz54c700.57$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.2612950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Jazz61c700$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27391050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Heat47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce37…3b15backed Heat46c629.61$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Jazz53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28250653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Jazz65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1753756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Jazz54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat45c483.05$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.812,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Heat48c468.75$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat44c465.15$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.643,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz54c442.77$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Jazz51c440$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.68252.4%43 W · 39 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked Heat47c420.43$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.610149.5%50 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat16c355.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat48c312.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.084,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Jazz57c282.27$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3825559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz54c269.29$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat39c249.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Heat46c248.13$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.141,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Jazz58c242$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6425951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat41c225.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.53,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x023c…c195backed Heat47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5974…2a69backed Jazz58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.413953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Heat46c160$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.730146.2%139 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Jazz60c146.63$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6513837%51 W · 87 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat40c146.63$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz49c118.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Heat47c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.737850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Jazz51c108.13$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3540849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Heat53c104.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7723845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Jazz53c101.23$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4891148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Jazz54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4659144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Jazz45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526339.5%104 W · 159 L-13.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Heat43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4024332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Jazz54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.597152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Jazz60c91.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6749358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Heat49c80.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Heat52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040960.6%248 W · 161 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Jazz54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0749246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Jazz50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3550651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Heat42c69.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3336247.5%172 W · 190 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Jazz56c68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Jazz52c67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1638252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz60c66.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.451,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Heat43c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.241048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Jazz54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.647948.6%233 W · 246 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat46c56.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.395,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Jazz56c53.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6557657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Jazz73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Heat42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Jazz60c46.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6762546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc1…36bbbacked Heat43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heat42c41.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.591,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Heat50c40.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204837.5%18 W · 30 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat40c35.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.331,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fad…374cbacked Heat42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518644.1%82 W · 104 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Heat42c35.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.762462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Heat46c34.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.042,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…9e1abacked Jazz58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Jazz60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz45c32.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Heat51c31.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.316052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Heat50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz64c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Heat50c29.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.990357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…f29bbacked Heat48c25.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239e…ef98backed Jazz52c23.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082875%21 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+83.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Jazz59c22.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1916036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Heat47c22.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5619750.3%99 W · 98 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…c920backed Jazz53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44856.3%27 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Jazz54c19.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.871,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.