TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,123 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c10,037$5,361 inWon+$4,675.269,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Over46c8,550$3,962 inLost-$3,961.53351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over49c4,000$1,950 inLost-$1,949.9918536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under51c3,305$1,693 inWon+$1,6123,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over48c1,042$500 inLost-$500.1618345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over23c359.72$82 inLost-$82.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Over48c353$169 inLost-$169.4423946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabba…e3ebbacked Under51c279.99$143 inWon+$137.21361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c199.34$98 inLost-$97.682,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under71c171.5$122 inWon+$49.061,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under57c153.93$88 inWon+$65.472,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over28c131.02$36 inLost-$36.3124330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under78c101$79 inWon+$22.223,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over48c79.4$38 inLost-$38.121,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…7350backed Over49c60$29 inLost-$29.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick49cpaid-70%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdafd…807fbacked Under69c52$36 inWon+$161136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under74c51.15$38 inWon+$13.118957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Under69c49.54$34 inWon+$15.5415453.2%82 W · 72 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Under69c49.31$34 inWon+$15.3114455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Under66c47.31$31 inWon+$16.3115253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over39c40$16 inLost-$15.7895452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c9…e50cbacked Under53c32.18$17 inWon+$14.992774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x285d…f500backed Under79c28.41$22 inWon+$6.032832.1%9 W · 19 L-6.7wins-0.24per pick56cpaid-50.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Under62c21.04$13 inWon+$8.0418055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under64c17$11 inWon+$6.0437959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.