TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,466 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Over42c50,000$21,000 inLost-$20,999.854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under58c35,806$20,767 inWon+$15,038.521,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8764…604abacked Under58c14,126$8,193 inWon+$5,932.927266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under57c10,485$6,018 inWon+$4,467.279,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over41c9,512$3,900 inLost-$3,90020948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under57c4,386$2,500 inWon+$1,885.9616442.1%69 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over48c3,650$1,752 inLost-$1,75231644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under57c2,199$1,256 inWon+$942.943,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over42c2,021$848 inLost-$848.43,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over42c1,597$677 inLost-$676.924,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under58c1,059$614 inWon+$444.612,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked Under20c1,000$200 inWon+$8003043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadb6…9c79backed Over80c1,000$800 inLost-$8001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over43c935$402 inLost-$402.056,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over43c432.56$186 inLost-$18626949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93d…f0c4backed Under59c338.98$200 inWon+$138.983076.7%23 W · 7 L+8.8wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.9%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8609…4897backed Over48c249.99$120 inLost-$1201464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27e1…704bbacked Over49c204.08$100 inLost-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1529…41e4backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Over42c172$72 inLost-$72.2410642.5%45 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under59c169.49$100 inWon+$69.491,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43c…ccd5backed Under52c128.72$67 inWon+$61.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…1618backed Under52c121.27$63 inWon+$58.212263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under54c100$54 inWon+$4649351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Over41c95$39 inLost-$38.957454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f9…2c69backed Under50c80$40 inWon+$405356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa30…c7abbacked Over43c58.14$25 inLost-$2511448.2%55 W · 59 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under60c35.8$21 inWon+$14.3292750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under61c29.72$18 inWon+$11.7340849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over41c29.72$12 inLost-$12.1850841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b89…f3a9backed Over52c23.83$12 inLost-$12.296344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over53c23.68$13 inLost-$12.5541556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under59c20$12 inWon+$8.259141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c48…7d6fbacked Under60c17.09$10 inWon+$6.894355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.