Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341a48bbc29753e187632eb0a9a03e4e3d56f622b95409746cfe2e30ff450f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 75c | 3,333$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.25 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed No | 78c | 2,422$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 22c | 1,264$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 1,015$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 23c | 604.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 575.77$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed No | 72c | 282.18$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 278.5$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…0f9bbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 191$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Yes | 28c | 161.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 28c | 160$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 143$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…96febacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…2ba7backed Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 30c | 99.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked No | 76c | 57.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 21c | 52.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +181%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 45.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 22.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.