Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef69483d9b6b3a3db62cd68860c65fcd09cc030e764312ce75e05f6b64dba8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 777.83$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.01 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 488.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 440.05$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 317.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 72c | 240.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 159.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 138.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 67c | 104.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 97.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 73c | 97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 74.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 33c | 66.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 45.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…f860backed No | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…a150backed No | 75c | 28.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.