Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0790cf702cee26981594a480cd7c8f16030ee77e9720b3c9a3918343a6cb17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 3,095$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 22c | 1,905$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.01 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 3c | 1,299$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…0d89backed No | 26c | 1,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 73c | 1,016$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 980.51$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 36c | 815.68$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 50c | 799.21$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.77 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 48c | 701.2$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.14 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 530.92$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 454.18$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed Yes | 50c | 318.66$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…dbf9backed No | 14c | 318.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 50c | 229.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Yes | 46c | 228.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd893…d412backed Yes | 48c | 207$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…2434backed No | 52c | 204$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…abdbbacked Yes | 48c | 203$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…9103backed No | 52c | 203$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a3…67b0backed Yes | 48c | 202$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e66…cdc1backed No | 52c | 202$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be3…f1c6backed No | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…7acdbacked Yes | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…fe6fbacked No | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…9e2bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…b719backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ba…b75dbacked Yes | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 46c | 138.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba07…1c15backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 51c | 117.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 44c | 105.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 39c | 103.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 51c | 97.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 44c | 81.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 57.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 77c | 52.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 80c | 47.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…91d6backed Yes | 51c | 43.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…95eabacked Yes | 47c | 41.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 49c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 76c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Yes | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 47cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.