Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iceland beat Montenegro?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6a1935c06da86b1d40099c01d42905f5ce167a6a172ad9eec76aaedef81ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes | 34c | 4,591$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 66c | 2,511$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.32 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 66c | 1,500$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 24c | 1,398$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.73 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 74c | 1,172$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.92 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 32c | 867.02$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.16 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Yes | 25c | 741.62$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed No | 67c | 573$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…17e3backed Yes | 33c | 570.81$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Yes | 31c | 499.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 67c | 303.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 113.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…bcc2backed Yes | 31c | 73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…2a8cbacked Yes | 52c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…14acbacked Yes | 68c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…c865backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iceland beat Montenegro?this page
- Will Montenegro beat Iceland?No won
- Will the match between Montenegro and Iceland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.