World Politics · resolved market
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd881efd2239b46db7f965d1aba652041edaa30f23c554f0e9a8052c5b13f416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd122…4e82backed Yes | 0c | 57,254$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 7c | 24,549$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.28 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 6c | 11,428$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.67 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 11c | 6,732$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…ab99backed Yes | 6c | 5,781$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 12c | 5,130$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,127$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 9c | 3,706$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…bb9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,871$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 14c | 1,915$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…99c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,602$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…3ed7backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,234$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 5c | 1,110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 13c | 869.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 8c | 810$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 578.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 14c | 570$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 5c | 499$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 6c | 319.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf82…d7f9backed Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 11c | 231.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 8c | 221.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…55e7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 6c | 195.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 188.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 103.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…c131backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…3ceebacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.