Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd898b703c6142ddbd2e66f4a7b11621592e6a82d3cc0ba6b87015c37e35ce90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,266$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 792.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 490$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 411.58$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 240$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 77c | 194.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 139.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 119.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 75c | 115.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 107.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 101.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 78.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 22c | 76.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 75.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 74.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 32c | 74.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 71.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 68.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8f…ac04backed No | 70c | 59.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 24c | 52.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 51.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 51.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 43.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…206dbacked No | 78c | 42.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.