Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe578798d87c4b7b2cb3b6c10f6b714e2e0ed54a5f6bcc3e0181f0cb1f0968520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 32c | 1,833$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.06 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 820$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.28 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 665.07$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 556.26$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 521.54$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 302.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 249.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 241.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 225.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 194$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 48c | 192.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 180.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 145.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 145$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 139.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 137.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 129.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 126.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 101.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 90.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 89.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 78.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 16c | 74.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked No | 67c | 70.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 68.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 62.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 68c | 58.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 41c | 49.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 47.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…4853backed No | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 38.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 48c | 36.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 28c | 35.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 32.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…403cbacked No | 49c | 32.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 31.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 30.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 54c | 28.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 48c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 24.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 59c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.