Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf311754ca0e40d3277fa6b54d58d7ed9e8b46599978ce645c55b92cdf3e9542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 539.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 500.51$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 11c | 403.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 196.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 186.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 181.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 139.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 23c | 88.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 75.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 36.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 77c | 20.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 79c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 75c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 78c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…c37cbacked No | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.